Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Strong Capital Position Enabling Growth Opportunities: RJF has significant excess capital, with nearly $1.5 billion above their 10% Tier 1 leverage ratio target, and $16 billion in cash with third-party banks, positioning the firm to invest in growth opportunities and outperform competitors. ,
- Increased Adviser Recruiting Activity and Strong Pipeline: The Private Client Group is seeing a significant pickup in adviser recruiting over the last two months, with record numbers of large teams in the pipeline, expected to drive future asset growth. ,
- Flexible Balance Sheet Leading to Superior Interest Income Performance: RJF's flexible approach to balance sheet management and focus on client needs resulted in better-than-expected spread revenue, outperforming peers in net interest income due to higher yields and maintaining flexibility. ,
- Increasing loan loss provisions due to credit concerns: RJF added significant reserves this quarter to proactively address potential issues, indicating concerns about credit quality.
- Net new asset growth slowed to 5%, below the high single-digit percentages in recent years, due to exiting a program that resulted in the loss of $4.6 billion in assets and 60 advisors.
- Uncertainty over stabilization of interest-related revenues: Management cannot predict when cash sorting will fully stabilize, and interest-related revenues may continue to face headwinds until interest rates stabilize.
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Capital Allocation and Share Buybacks
Q: Will there be increased share buybacks given excess capital?
A: Management has nearly $1.5 billion of excess capital above their 10% target. They prioritize investing in growth but are committed to offsetting dilution, about $200 million a year. Since they didn't repurchase any shares last quarter, they plan to catch up and may buy back more shares if the price is attractive. -
Loan Growth and Net Interest Income Outlook
Q: How is loan growth expected to impact NII guidance?
A: They expect modest loan growth as demand is muted, especially on the corporate side. They're optimistic about growth in securities-based loans, with repayments stabilizing and new originations starting. The near-term net interest income guidance factors in this modest growth. -
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Deposit Costs
Q: How are deposit costs and cash sorting impacting margins?
A: The shift to higher-cost deposits, like the enhanced savings program balances costing around 5%, has increased deposit costs. This mix shift has contracted the net interest margin sequentially. They believe they're closer to the end of cash sorting dynamics but say stabilization depends on interest rates stabilizing. -
Expenses and Cost Management
Q: How should we think about expense growth if revenues remain depressed?
A: Non-compensation expenses will continue to grow due to growth investments and costs like FDIC insurance as they put more deposits at the bank. They're focused on managing controllable expenses while ensuring high support levels for advisors and clients. Admin compensation grew 16% due to growth investments and higher raises but is expected to have a reduced growth rate going forward. -
Credit Provisions and Loan Losses
Q: What's driving the increase in credit provisions, and how are you managing credit risk?
A: Management is proactive in adding to reserves to ensure they're well-reserved. Additions this quarter were due to specific loans, trying to get ahead with additional reserves. Charge-offs were flat sequentially, and they feel good about the portfolio but acknowledge that macroeconomic models can impact provisions. -
Advisor Recruitment and Attrition
Q: How is advisor attrition and recruitment impacting net new assets?
A: Advisor attrition remained low at about 1%, slightly up from last year. They've added significant advisor teams, including a recent addition of a bank platform with $3 billion in assets and 27 advisors. Net new asset growth was impacted by exiting one program, costing $4.6 billion in assets and 60 advisors, but they expect growth to revert back as recruiting picks up. -
Capital Markets and M&A Activity
Q: How is the higher cost of capital affecting M&A activity?
A: The higher cost of capital is impacting deals, as pricing is slow to adjust, creating gaps between buyers and sellers. Management is still seeking acquisitions that are a good cultural fit but acknowledges that pricing is challenging currently . -
Regulatory Impacts and Basel III Rules
Q: How will the new bank capital rules affect your business?
A: Management believes it will take a long time to reach the $100 billion asset threshold. They have no plans to acquire another bank, and most growth comes from organic growth. They're internally studying the impact of new capital rules to prepare when they eventually cross the threshold.
Research analysts covering RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL.